2028 Republican Presidential Nominee - Detailed Predictions
Comprehensive AI analysis with confidence levels for all major candidates (REVISED: Trump Won 2024)
📊 The New Reality (Updated November 2025)
Trump won the 2024 election decisively, defeating Kamala Harris 312-226 in the Electoral College and winning the popular vote. JD Vance is now the sitting Vice President, sworn in on January 20, 2025. This completely changes the analysis.
Trump won all swing states, expanded the GOP coalition with Hispanic, Black, and Asian voters, and won the popular vote for the first time since 2004. JD Vance now has massive structural advantages as the sitting VP and Trump's explicit heir.
| Candidate | My Odds | Market Odds | Confidence | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JD Vance | 75% | 54-59% | 9/10 🟢🟢 | 🔥🔥 STRONG BUY |
| Ron DeSantis | 8% | 4% | 8/10 🟢 | 💰 SLIGHT BUY |
| Marco Rubio | 6% | 8% | 7/10 🟢 | ❌ SLIGHT SELL |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 6% | 4% | 5/10 🟡 | ✅ SLIGHT BUY |
| Tucker Carlson | 5% | 15-20% | 7/10 🟢 | ❌❌ STRONG SELL |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 4% | 5% | 6/10 🟡 | ➡️ HOLD |
| Donald Trump | 3% | 5% | 8/10 🟢 | ❌ SELL |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | 2% | 4-8% | 8/10 🟢 | ❌❌ STRONG SELL |
| Field/Others | 11% | - | - | - |
Detailed Candidate Analysis
1. JD Vance
Why I'm MUCH More Bullish Than Market:
- Sitting Vice President: Incumbency advantage is massive
- Trump's explicit heir: Trump chose him and won with him
- Successful administration: If Trump/Vance govern well 2025-2028, Vance is unstoppable
- MAGA legitimacy: He's been vetted and approved by the base
- Trump will endorse him: 99% certainty Trump backs his own VP
- Historical Precedent: Sitting VPs have huge advantages (Bush Sr. 1988, Gore 2000 won nomination easily)
- Trump's endorsement in a GOP primary is worth 40+ points
- No serious MAGA challenger can emerge without Trump's blessing
Why 75% Not Higher:
- VP performance matters: If he screws up badly, odds drop
- Trump could change his mind: Trump is unpredictable (but unlikely)
- Health/scandal: Something catastrophic could happen
- Trump runs again: Extremely unlikely but Trump might try to change the rules
Bottom Line:
Vance is now the overwhelming favorite. The market at 54-59% is UNDERVALUING him. He should be 70-80%. If Trump/Vance govern competently, he's unstoppable.
2. Ron DeSantis
The Only Path:
- Trump/Vance administration fails: Recession, scandal, policy disasters
- MAGA wants a "competent Trump": DeSantis can position as "Trump policies without chaos"
- Establishment consolidates: Donors and party apparatus back him
- He's learned from 2024: Better campaign, better messaging
Why He's Still Alive:
- Governor of Florida: Executive experience, major state
- Conservative record: Can't be out-flanked on policy
- Young: Only 50 in 2028
- Fundraising: Still has donor network
Why Market Is Right He's Declining:
- Trump won without him: DeSantis bet against Trump and lost
- Base hasn't forgiven him: Challenging Trump was unforgivable
- Vance is the heir: Trump chose Vance, not DeSantis
- Personality problems: Still awkward, still unlikeable
Bottom Line:
DeSantis at 4% is about right, maybe slightly undervalued. He's the "Trump administration fails" insurance bet.
3. Tucker Carlson
Why Market Is Overvaluing Him:
- Vance is the MAGA heir: Tucker can't out-MAGA the sitting VP
- Trump will endorse Vance: Tucker has no path if Trump backs Vance
- Never held office: This matters more when there's a sitting VP
- Russia comments: Will be brutal in a primary
Why He Has Any Chance:
- If Vance implodes: Tucker is the backup MAGA candidate
- Media platform: Massive reach on X/Twitter
- Base loves him: Genuine grassroots support
Bottom Line:
Tucker at 15-20% is way too high. He's a 5% "chaos candidate" now that Vance is VP.
4. Marjorie Taylor Greene
Why Market Is Way Overvaluing Her:
- Can't challenge sitting VP: Vance has Trump's blessing
- Too extreme: Even MAGA voters worry about electability
- No executive experience: Just a House member
- Trump won't back her: He'll back his own VP
Bottom Line:
MTG at 4-8% is insane. She's a 2% "everything goes wrong" bet.
5. Marco Rubio
Why He's Interesting:
- Secretary of State: If he's in Trump's cabinet, he gains credibility
- Florida Senator: Statewide experience
- Hispanic: Could expand GOP coalition
- Establishment favorite: Donors like him
Why He Won't Win:
- Can't challenge sitting VP: Vance has the inside track
- 2016 failure: Lost badly to Trump
- "Little Marco": Trump destroyed him once
- Not MAGA enough: Base doesn't trust him
Bottom Line:
Rubio at 8% is slightly high. He's a 6% "establishment lane if Vance fails" bet.
6. Tulsi Gabbard
Why She's Interesting:
- Trump cabinet member: If she's in the administration, she gains credibility
- Military veteran: Army National Guard
- Crossover appeal: Former Democrat, appeals to independents
- Anti-establishment: Can run as outsider
Why She Won't Win:
- Former Democrat: Base doesn't fully trust her
- Not conservative enough: On social issues especially
- Can't challenge Vance: He's the heir apparent
- Limited GOP base: Who are her voters?
Bottom Line:
Tulsi at 5% is about right. She's a 4% "crossover appeal" bet.
7. Donald Trump
Why This Is Interesting:
- He could try to run again: But 22nd Amendment limits two terms total
- He's still popular: Base loves him
- He might not trust Vance: Could change his mind
Why This Won't Happen:
- 22nd Amendment: He can't run (two terms total, not consecutive)
- Age: He'll be 82 in 2028
- He'll endorse Vance: He chose him as heir
- Legal issues: Might still be dealing with cases
Bottom Line:
Trump at 5% is a meme bet. He's not running. 3% is generous.
8. Donald Trump Jr.
Why He's More Viable Than I Thought:
- Trump name: Inherits the brand
- MAGA credibility: Beloved by base
- If Vance fails: Don Jr. is the backup Trump heir
- Dad might prefer him: Family loyalty over political heir
Why He Still Won't Win:
- Never held office: No experience
- Personal issues: Divorce, substance allegations
- Vance is the political heir: Trump chose Vance for a reason
- Not as competent: Vance is smarter and more capable
Bottom Line:
Don Jr. at 4% is slightly undervalued. He's a 6% "Trump family dynasty" bet.
Key Scenarios
Scenario 1: Trump/Vance Administration Succeeds (70% probability)
- Vance is unstoppable: 85% odds
- No serious challenger emerges: Trump endorsement is decisive
- DeSantis/Rubio fight for scraps: 10% combined
Scenario 2: Trump/Vance Administration Struggles (25% probability)
- Vance still favored but vulnerable: 50% odds
- DeSantis comeback: 20% odds
- Rubio establishment play: 15% odds
- Tucker chaos candidate: 10% odds
Scenario 3: Major Scandal/Disaster (5% probability)
- Wide open race: No clear favorite
- DeSantis/Rubio/Tucker all viable: 20-25% each
- Dark horse emerges: 15%
Bottom Line
The market is UNDERVALUING Vance at 54-59%. He should be 70-80%. Key factors:
- Incumbency advantage is massive for VPs
- Trump's endorsement is worth 40+ points in GOP primary
- No serious MAGA challenger can emerge without Trump's blessing
- Historical precedent: Sitting VPs almost always win nomination (Bush Sr., Gore, Nixon)
My highest conviction bet: Vance at 75%. If Trump/Vance govern competently, he's unstoppable.
The only scenarios where Vance loses: Major scandal (personal or political), Trump/Vance administration is a disaster, Trump changes his mind (extremely unlikely), or health issues. Otherwise, JD Vance is your 2028 Republican nominee. Book it.