Political Event Predictions
AI-powered analysis for political markets
2028 US Presidential Election Winner
Presidential Election
Who will win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
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Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Primary Election
Who will win the Democratic nomination in 2028?
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Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Primary Election
Who will win the Republican nomination in 2028?
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10-Year Treasury Yield 2025
Treasury Market
Will 10-year Treasury yields reach 4.6% or higher by December 31, 2025?
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Fed Decision in April?
Federal Reserve
Answer: No change (0 bps). April 28–29 FOMC; 3.50%–3.75% range; FedWatch and Polymarket ~97% hold.
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Which Party Will Win the House in 2026?
House Control
Democrats predicted to win with 75-80% confidence. Analysis of razor-thin GOP majority, polling, and midterm patterns.
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Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick out as US Rep by May 31?
House Ethics
YES may be underpriced: April 21 ethics hearing, sustained findings, and two peer resignations in a four-seat cluster already in the news.
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West Bengal Legislative Assembly Election Winner
India — West Bengal 2026
Thesis: BJP most seats — SIR roll revision, 44–70 marginal seats touched, Phase 1 (Apr 23) vs Phase 2 (Apr 29); Polymarket may underprice post-adjudication turnout risk.
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Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?
Middle East Conflict
Primary phase concludes mid-to-late May 2026, full resolution by early-to-mid June 2026. Analysis based on ISW reports showing 75% missile launcher destruction and regime instability.
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