2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee - Detailed Predictions
Comprehensive AI analysis with confidence levels for all major candidates
| Candidate | My Odds | Market Odds | Confidence | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Shapiro | 30% | 4% | 7.5/10 🟢 | 🔥 STRONG BUY |
| Gavin Newsom | 25% | 38% | 8/10 🟢 | ❌ SELL |
| Gretchen Whitmer | 12% | ? | 6.5/10 🟡 | 💰 BUY |
| Pete Buttigieg | 10% | 6% | 6/10 🟡 | ✅ SLIGHT BUY |
| Wes Moore | 6% | 3% | 5/10 🟡 | ✅ SLIGHT BUY |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 5% | 14% | 7.5/10 🟢 | ❌ SELL |
| Jon Ossoff | 4% | 4% | 7/10 🟢 | ➡️ HOLD |
| Kamala Harris | 3% | 5% | 8/10 🟢 | ❌ SELL |
| Field/Others | 5% | - | - | - |
Detailed Candidate Analysis
1. Josh Shapiro
My Odds
30%
Market Odds
4%
Confidence: 7.5/10 🟢
🔥 STRONG BUY
Why I'm Bullish:
- Pennsylvania is THE swing state: Won it by 14.8 points in 2022 while Biden won by only 1.2% in 2020
- Bipartisan appeal: Has worked with Republican legislature, appeals to moderates
- Jewish candidate: Would be historic but also tested - he's already won statewide
- Age sweet spot: 55 in 2028 - experienced but not "old guard"
- Strong fundraising network: Connections in both Philly and national Democratic circles
Why I Could Be Wrong:
- National name recognition is low: Most Americans don't know who he is yet
- Limited national media presence: Hasn't been on the Sunday shows circuit much
- Israel/Gaza politics: His strong pro-Israel stance could be divisive in Democratic primaries by 2028
- Governors often underperform: National campaigns are different beasts
- He might not even run: Could be content being PA governor
Key Indicators to Watch:
- Does he campaign for Dems nationally in 2026?
- Does he get a prime speaking slot at 2026/2027 events?
- Can he build a national fundraising operation?
2. Gavin Newsom
My Odds
25%
Market Odds
38%
Confidence: 8/10 🟢
❌ SELL
Why He's Still Strong:
- Massive name recognition: Everyone knows who he is
- Fundraising machine: California donor network is unmatched
- Media savvy: Excellent communicator, looks presidential
- National profile: Has been positioning himself for years
- Executive experience: Will have 10 years as CA governor by 2028
Why I'm Bearish vs. Market:
- California is a liability: Homelessness crisis, high cost of living, crime narratives
- French Laundry moment: Pattern of "rules for thee but not for me" incidents
- Coastal elite problem: Struggles to connect with Midwest/Rust Belt voters
- Hillary Clinton parallels: Well-known, well-funded, but potentially out of touch
- Democratic base wants change: After Biden, do they want another older white male establishment figure?
Key Indicators to Watch:
- How does California's economy/crime situation look in 2027?
- Can he win over labor unions outside California?
- Does he moderate his positions for a national audience?
3. Pete Buttigieg
My Odds
10%
Market Odds
6%
Confidence: 6/10 🟡
✅ SLIGHT BUY
Why I'm Slightly Bullish:
- Best communicator in Democratic politics: Destroys opponents in debates
- Cabinet experience: Transportation Secretary gives executive credibility
- Military service: Navy veteran - helps with credibility
- Midwest roots: Indiana background helps with regional appeal
- 2020 proved viability: Won Iowa, showed he could compete
Why I'm Not More Bullish:
- Transportation Secretary is not a launching pad: Name one Transportation Secretary who became president
- 2020 collapse: Couldn't build diverse coalition, especially with Black voters
- Age might work against him: He'll be 46 - might seem too young vs. experienced governors
- LGBTQ+ factor: Sadly, still a potential liability in general election swing states
- No state base: Doesn't have a governor's mansion or Senate seat to run from
Key Indicators to Watch:
- Does he take a different cabinet role or run for office?
- Can he build relationships with Black political leaders?
- Does he get more national security credentials?
4. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
My Odds
5%
Market Odds
14%
Confidence: 7.5/10 🟢
❌ SELL
Why Market Overvalues Her:
- Internet fame ≠ electability: Twitter/social media presence doesn't translate to primary votes
- No executive experience: Never run anything, just been a House member
- Too progressive for general: Medicare for All, Green New Deal are tough sells in swing states
- Age: Only 38 in 2028 - Democrats tend to prefer experience
- Establishment resistance: Democratic Party apparatus would work against her
Why She Has Any Chance:
- Massive grassroots energy: Can raise money from small donors
- Generational change: Millennials will be a huge voting bloc by 2028
- Name recognition: Everyone knows who she is
- Communication skills: Excellent on social media and in hearings
- Progressive lane: If the party swings left, she's the obvious choice
Key Indicators to Watch:
- Does she run for Senate or Governor of NY?
- Does she moderate any positions?
- How does the progressive movement fare in 2026 midterms?
5. Kamala Harris
My Odds
3%
Market Odds
5%
Confidence: 8/10 🟢
❌ SELL
Why She's Done:
- 2024 loss: If she lost to Trump (or whoever), she's finished
- 2020 primary collapse: Dropped out before Iowa despite being a "frontrunner"
- Approval ratings: Struggled as VP with consistently low ratings
- No natural base: Doesn't excite progressives, moderates, or any particular demographic
- Age: Would be 64 in 2028 - not old, but not the "new generation"
6. Gretchen Whitmer
My Odds
12%
Market Odds
Unknown
Confidence: 6.5/10 🟡
💰 BUY
Why She's Underrated:
- Michigan governor: Proven winner in crucial swing state
- Kidnapping plot sympathy: Survived domestic terrorism plot, shows toughness
- Abortion rights champion: Led on Prop 3 in Michigan
- Executive experience: Will have 10 years as governor by 2028
- Woman candidate: Democrats want to elect first woman president
Why She Might Not Run:
- Might be content in Michigan: Good job, less stressful than president
- National profile still building: Not as well-known as Newsom
- Midwest nice: Might not have the killer instinct for national politics
Key Indicators to Watch:
- Does she campaign nationally in 2026?
- Does she write a book?
- Does she take on more national media?
7. Jon Ossoff
My Odds
4%
Market Odds
4%
Confidence: 7/10 🟢
➡️ HOLD
Why Market Is Right:
- Too young: Only 41 in 2028
- Limited experience: Just one Senate term
- Georgia is tough: Winning there was impressive but can he do it nationally?
- No executive experience: Never run anything
Why He Could Surprise:
- Generational change: If Democrats want youth
- Investigative journalism background: Good storytelling
- Fundraising: Raised massive amounts for his races
- Swing state credibility: Won in Georgia
8. Wes Moore
My Odds
6%
Market Odds
3%
Confidence: 5/10 🟡
✅ SLIGHT BUY
Why I'm Slightly Bullish:
- Incredible biography: Rhodes Scholar, Army veteran, nonprofit leader, author
- Maryland governor: Executive experience in a diverse state
- Charisma: Excellent speaker and communicator
- Youth: Only 50 in 2028
- Historic: Would be only the third Black president
Why I'm Not More Bullish:
- Limited experience: Only 2-6 years as governor by 2028
- Maryland is not a swing state: Doesn't prove swing state appeal
- National profile still building: Most Americans don't know him
- Might be too soon: Could be better positioned for 2032 or 2036
Key Assumptions
- Biden doesn't run again (age/health)
- Democrats lose 2024 (if they won, Harris would be frontrunner)
- Economy is stable (recession changes everything)
- No major scandals (can derail anyone)
- Progressive vs. Moderate fight continues (shapes the race)
Bottom Line
The market is overvaluing celebrity (Newsom, AOC) and undervaluing swing-state electability (Shapiro, Whitmer). In Democratic primaries, electability arguments tend to win out eventually.