Why Itamar Ben-Gvir Is Here to Stay: The Political Armor Shielding Israel’s National Security Minister

In the whirlwind of Israeli politics, few figures generate as much heat as Itamar Ben-Gvir. The leader of the far-right Otzma Yehudit party and current National Security Minister has faced relentless legal scrutiny, including petitions backed by the Attorney General demanding his ouster. Yet, following the High Court’s landmark hearing on April 15 and its measured ruling on April 16, 2026, one thing is crystal clear: Ben-Gvir isn’t going anywhere anytime soon.

The court stopped short of ordering his removal. Instead, it imposed interim restrictions on his influence over police operations and appointments while directing the parties (Ben-Gvir, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara) to negotiate a “framework of principles” by May 3. This outcome underscores a fundamental truth in Israeli governance: legal challenges, no matter how fierce, often bow to raw political arithmetic. Here’s why we believe Ben-Gvir’s position is remarkably secure through at least June 30, 2026 (and likely well beyond).

1. The Slim Majority Makes Him a True Kingmaker

Israel’s current coalition is razor-thin, hovering around a 64-seat majority in the 120-member Knesset. Otzma Yehudit holds just 6 seats, but in a government this fragile, every single one counts. Ben-Gvir’s party is not a junior partner; it’s a linchpin.

Netanyahu has learned this lesson the hard way. Ben-Gvir briefly quit the coalition in January 2025 over a Gaza ceasefire deal, only to rejoin in March once fighting resumed, strengthening the government ahead of critical budget votes. His threats to withhold support have repeatedly extracted concessions, from advancing controversial legislation to shaping security policy. Removing him now would risk immediate coalition collapse, forcing early elections that polls suggest would be disastrous for the right-wing bloc.

Coalition partners know this. From Likud to Shas and Religious Zionism, they’ve rallied around him publicly. Justice Minister Yariv Levin has already declared that any court order to fire Ben-Gvir would have “zero validity,” signaling a readiness to defy judicial intervention if pushed. This isn’t bluster; it’s survival math.

2. Surging Polls: Ben-Gvir’s Star Is Rising on the Right

Far from being a liability, Ben-Gvir is becoming an electoral asset for the hard-right. April 2026 polls paint a striking picture:

• Kan 11 and Channel 13 surveys project Otzma Yehudit at 9–10 seats (up from 6).
• A Maariv poll recently showed it hitting 11 seats in one scenario.
• In a hypothetical where Ben-Gvir is removed from office, some polls show his party surging even higher, to 15 seats, as voters rally to his “persecuted” image.

Meanwhile, his rival Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism party struggles to clear the electoral threshold in many surveys. Ben-Gvir’s unapologetic style (pushing death-penalty laws for terrorists, expanded civilian gun licensing, and stronger Temple Mount presence) resonates with younger, nationalist voters disillusioned with the status quo.

He’s even emerging as a preferred successor to Netanyahu among some coalition voters. This grassroots momentum gives him leverage far beyond his current Knesset seats and makes any move against him politically toxic for the right.

3. Netanyahu’s Ironclad Defense and the “Unconstitutional” Shield

Prime Minister Netanyahu has repeatedly labeled attempts to oust Ben-Gvir as “unconstitutional,” arguing the court has no authority to second-guess elected officials on ministerial appointments. In filings ahead of the April hearing, his team emphasized separation of powers: the people and Knesset chose this government, not the judiciary.

This stance isn’t new. Netanyahu has protected Ben-Gvir through multiple crises, from international sanctions to domestic protests. The coalition is advancing what some call the “Ben-Gvir Law,” legislation that would further limit High Court oversight of ministerial roles. Combined with preemptive vows from coalition leaders to ignore any adverse ruling, it creates a formidable political fortress.

4. A Track Record of Resilience and Deliverables

Ben-Gvir has already survived one resignation-and-rejoin cycle, multiple Attorney General opinions, and now the most high-profile High Court challenge of his tenure. Each time, he emerges stronger in the eyes of his base.

His policy wins, most recently the March 2026 passage of the death-penalty bill for lethal terrorists, deliver on campaign promises and keep his voters energized. These tangible victories reinforce his narrative: he’s a fighter delivering “Jewish strength” against perceived threats, not a liability to be discarded.

Critics argue his influence politicizes the police and risks democratic norms. Supporters counter that he was democratically appointed to enact the very changes his voters demanded. In Israel’s polarized landscape, the latter argument carries significant weight within the governing bloc.

The Bottom Line: Politics Trumps Law (For Now)

The High Court’s April 16 decision reflects judicial caution in the face of potential constitutional crisis. By opting for negotiation over outright removal, and with May 3 as the next checkpoint, it has effectively kicked the can down the road while preserving Ben-Gvir’s seat.

Add it all up: coalition dependence, polling gains, Netanyahu’s full-throated backing, and a government prepared to defy judicial overreach. The result? Itamar Ben-Gvir is not just surviving; he’s thriving as one of the most influential figures in Israeli politics.

For observers watching the prediction markets or wondering about stability until the next scheduled election (October 2026), the signal is clear. Barring a dramatic, unforeseen shift in the coalition’s arithmetic or a voluntary exit on his own terms (which history suggests is rare and usually tactical), Ben-Gvir’s political armor looks bulletproof.

The far-right isn’t just in the room. In many ways, it’s setting the table, and Itamar Ben-Gvir is the one holding the biggest seat at it.

Will the May 3 framework talks change anything, or is this just political theater? Weigh in with the community on Discord (link below). We read the threads.